So, what do I do with my money now? It’s the question those of us in the financial advising world are asked often these days. And clients are expecting a new answer to this very old question. Think again, because the best advice is, do with your money what you should always do with it: invest it. Diversify it. And don’t watch the market’s daily fluctuations.
Many people protest, “Yes, but the world’s economic system collapsed last year and so many of us have lost jobs and homes—it’s the worst recession since 1929.” You’re right, it was a bad year for the economy, but not for the equity markets—they went up more than fifty percent. Does this surprise you? It often does, which is a good signal that we should review the year and see what really happened.
Since the low point of March 2009, the market has rebounded over fifty percent (international markets are up over seventy percent). Did we need evidence that markets do, reliably, rebound? Apparently, given how many people sold their equity investments near the market’s bottom (the worst time to sell) in early 2009. Remember: the markets have always rebounded. Of course, most of us expected that this time would be different. But it wasn’t; it has never been.
One reason that the world markets reliably rebound—both on the high end as well as the low—is that they are only expectations of the future. But because our expectations tend to align with the current trends, this can lead to the need for some counterintuitive decision-making. For instance, a truly great company could be a bad investment; companies that are worshipped by the masses will become overvalued as they increase in popularity. So, even though Google may be outstanding and deserving in its popularity, it may not be a great addition to your portfolio if you buy it when the public’s expectation for growth exceeds what Google can deliver. Expectations are also the reason that the equity markets will eventually become undervalued and then rebound. Our fear tends to be worse than reality, and our hope tends toward the good only getting better. Another example: the world hasn’t really improved economically in the last year. Yet we expected things to be much worse (that unemployment would go to twenty-five percent and other depressing beliefs). Because those dire predictions didn’t materialize—our expectations were thwarted—the markets rebounded. That’s why skillfully and accurately predicting the market’s movements is impossible; you would have to know what is going to happen in the world and know the public’s expectations of what will happen. That’s a crystal ball that does not exist. But on a large scale, you can soundly rely on the fact that when something in the financial world heads for an extreme, it will eventually move back toward center.
This leads us to a simple fact: investing is one practice where basics are best. Though we’ve ignored them, simple rules have led to tremendous financial success. It’s worth getting refocused on them. So, here they are, the simple rules for financial success:
• Investing in equities will make you more money over time than investing in bonds or CDs.
• Trying to time when to get in or out of the market is a fool’s game. It cannot be supported by any study. No one, not a PhD economist or a great entrepreneur, can time the market, so why should you be different?
• Investing is meant to be a long-term, boring proposition. If you want excitement, take up hang gliding or surfing.
• If you want to launch yourself into the top ten percent performance of all investors, diversify your money into over ten thousand companies globally using passive or index no-load mutual funds allocated among fourteen investment categories, including commercial real estate.
• Balance these equities with the appropriate amount of bonds and CDs so that when the market has a temporary downward movement, you won’t react by selling all your equities (or jumping out of a window). In other words, you need more bonds and CDs if you are older and closer to your goals and/or if you watch the market too frequently.
• Don’t look at the market. If you knew that you would have an extra $100,000 to $1,000,000 at retirement if you stopped watching the market on a daily or weekly basis, what would you do? Abstinence, in this arena of life, leads to financial health and wealth.
• We must treat investing like everything else: rush out to buy investments when they’re on sale (just like we do with clothing, books, cameras, and furniture). A sale on equities is a cause for celebration, not paralysis.
I advise people to have their money diversified into fourteen different asset categories in a very simple strategy that has generated returns far greater than the S&P 500 index. Keep in mind that of most professional money managers, over ninety percent have not been able to beat the S&P 500. If it embarrasses you, or feels uninteresting or unsophisticated to invest in a brainless index (not sexy or exciting), remember that you’ll be earning more than most professionals. Instead, fantasize about the great vacations you’ll be taking as a result of your humdrum investment strategy.
Of course it does happen occasionally that someone times the market just right and wins big. But it’s about as likely as winning a lottery ticket, and just as much about luck.
Some people were savvy enough to get out of the market in the late summer/ early fall of 2008. Good for them. But how many were able to get back into the market in early spring 2009, before it rebounded? I don’t know anyone. It was just too scary to get back in. And that’s why it’s important to stay invested, not get emotionally involved with your investments, and look for other outlets for excitement, fear, and adrenaline.
Let’s embrace the truth: this time is no different than any other as regards your finances. Follow the strategy that’s always worked and don’t get sidetracked by
current and temporal events. Simple and solid.
Spencer Sherman, MBA, CFP, is the CEO of Abacus Wealth Partners in Sebastopol and the author of The Cure for Money Madness. abacuswealth.com; curemoneymadness.com



